France’s gambling regulator has found that players classed as excessive or manifestly excessive placed more than 80% of their stakes on low-profile leagues in Brazil, Saudi Arabia, Japan and Australia, and accounted for 80% to 89% of bets on certain sub-match markets, according to the 2025 online sports betting analysis published by the Autorité Nationale des Jeux on 12 October 2026. The regulator said the pattern could support stronger player-safety requirements, though it does not by itself prove that those competitions are more addictive. The findings sit alongside strong market growth: online sports betting stakes rose 12% to €11.52bn and gross gaming revenue rose 10.4% to €1.766bn.
Market growth came without a major event
Online sports betting in France continued to expand in 2025 despite a calendar that the ANJ described as lacking major events. Active accounts rose 7.9% to 5.27 million and unique players rose 8.6% to 3.65 million, while average annual stakes per bettor reached €3,159, up 25% since 2020. Operators paid €180m in financial incentives, mainly retention bonuses, over the year.
Football accounted for 54.9% of stakes at €6.32bn, with tennis at 23% and €2.65bn. The ANJ said football’s 10.2% rise understates momentum because 2024 included the European Championship, which alone generated €438m in bets; adjusting for that, growth is estimated at between 10% and 19%. An expanded Champions League calendar helped: matches rose from 137 to 189, a 38% increase, and stakes on the competition climbed 48.6% to €829m, with around three-quarters of that increase driven by the higher number of matches rather than larger bets per game, according to the ANJ’s market analysis. The new Club World Cup averaged €3.9m per match, close to the Champions League’s €4.4m.
Excessive bettors concentrated on niche leagues
The ANJ divides players into four risk categories: recreational, moderate risk, excessive and manifestly excessive. In an analysis covering the first half of 2026, it found that more than 80% of stakes placed by the two highest-risk categories were on leagues in Brazil, Saudi Arabia, Japan and Australia — competitions that usually attract limited recreational interest. Recreational bettors, by contrast, favoured major events such as the 2026 World Cup. Between 80% and 89% of bets on sub-match outcomes, such as half-time and quarter-time results and set or game bets in tennis, came from players classified as excessive.
The regulator cautioned that these patterns do not necessarily indicate higher addiction potential for those competitions, and may simply reflect the absence of casual bettors. It said the research could help inform stronger player-safety measures linked to the approval of specific competitions and betting products.
Live betting climbs on lower-profile contests
Live betting accounted for about 26% of stakes on Champions League matches and 30% to 35% on major domestic leagues, but rose to roughly 48% for secondary competitions and 50% to 58% for European second divisions and unlisted leagues. The ANJ attributed this partly to global scheduling: South American leagues filled nighttime slots in France, while Asian and Oceanian fixtures covered morning hours, creating a near 24-hour live betting window. Across bet types, the regulator said excessive bettors accounted for 80% to 89% of stakes on in-play outcomes depending on the sport.
RTP cap and margin effects
The ANJ emphasised that stakes reflect punters’ activity, while gross gaming revenue depends on bet volumes, operator pricing and the unpredictability of results. Stakes rose 12% but GGR rose 10.4%, a gap it said was explained by a shift in margins rather than changes in punters’ behaviour. Tennis stakes rose 16% against an 8.6% GGR increase, rugby rose 11.4% against 3.4%, while volleyball’s stakes rose 20.9% and GGR rose 47.2%.
France caps online sports betting return to player at 85% annually per operator. The market average was 84.67% in 2025. After September results favourable to punters pushed the monthly RTP to 94.5% and the cumulative figure above the cap, October and November rates were cut to 82.3% and 74.2%, bringing the cumulative RTP back to 84.6% by the end of November and 84.67% for the year. Implied RTP by sport ranged from 83.4% for football to 90.1% for rugby, with lower-volume sports more dispersed; ice hockey stood at 78.7% and cycling at 90.1%, while MMA recorded a negative annual GGR of €9m.
What the findings could mean for player safety
The ANJ said the concentration of high-risk players in niche competitions and sub-match markets could support integrating enhanced player-safety requirements related to which competitions and bet types are authorised. The report also highlights 2024 estimates from the French Monitoring Centre for Drugs and Drug Addiction that about 1.17 million people in France displayed problematic gambling behaviour, including roughly 360,000 classed as excessive. The regulator did not announce new rules in the report.
